Evidence and counter-hypotheses
Every statement in a situation report names the knowledge entries it is based on; every hypothesis stands next to a counter-hypothesis.
Purpose
A situation report should be verifiable, not sound convincing. Evidence traces every statement back to reviewed knowledge, and the counter-hypothesis forces you to consider the other explanation as well.
How it works
- Under “Situation report”, open a situation report.
- For every signal and every hypothesis, read the titles of the knowledge entries it is based on, after the dash.
- For every hypothesis, note the “Counter-hypothesis” and the indication “low confidence”, “medium confidence” or “high confidence”.
- Look up the named entries under “Knowledge” with search and read them.
Situation report
Last 30 daysSignals
Rush orders go through two approvals.
Evidence 1Evidence 2
Hypotheses
The second approval lengthens delivery time.
Counter-hypothesis
Delivery time depends on production, not on the approval.
medium confidence
Open questions
Does the rule also apply to spare parts?
PPTX · Download as PowerPoint
Fig. 1 Reviewed knowledge from the departments becomes a situation report: summary, signals with evidence, hypothesis and counter-hypothesis, open questions and a PowerPoint file.
How Universe Memory checks evidence
The language model receives every knowledge entry with its ID and must support every statement with at least one of these IDs. Universe Memory then checks the details: IDs that do not belong to the entries passed in are struck out. A signal or hypothesis without any remaining evidence is discarded completely.
The confidence of a hypothesis
- “low confidence”: little or weak evidence.
- “medium confidence”: several pieces of evidence pointing in the same direction.
- “high confidence”: clear, consistent evidence.
The rating comes from the language model. It is an assessment, not a measurement.
Evidence and read permissions
When displaying, Universe Memory resolves the IDs into titles as far as the viewing person may read the entries. If they lack the permission, “…” appears in that place.
Tips
Read the counter-hypothesis first. If it sounds just as plausible, that is an open question for the next meeting.
Frequently asked questions
Can a situation report contain statements without evidence?
Not signals and hypotheses: Universe Memory discards every statement without valid evidence. The summary and the open questions carry no evidence of their own.
What is a counter-hypothesis?
An alternative explanation for the same observations. It accompanies every hypothesis and helps to avoid hasty conclusions.
Why do I only see “…” for a piece of evidence?
Because you may not read the underlying knowledge entry.
Related features
As of: · Concept & lead: Alexander Holtermann